Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Reading the long-term tea leaves

The Fed's announcement was absolutely mind-boggling today for the markets. Bernanke stated the low rates would stay in place for some time (good for the markets), that the Federal Reserve was watching inflation rates as the trigger for rates (good for the economy), and that the decline in consumer and business spending was moderating (good for everything, duh). And what did the markets do?

They freaked out. Of course. It was all too good, see, and the markets didn't know what to do with it.

I have a hunch, and you can take my hunches with a grain of salt, that the markets will be up tomorrow as they realize the Fed might just be on their side. I have marked the chart with a long-term trendline that I will accept as a sign that things are truly back to normal. Should upward momentum fail, I see support at the 100 and 200 day moving averages. On a short-term basis, support at the 50-day if we sustain a pop above it.

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